Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

A Local Forecast of Land Surface Wetness Conditions Derived from Seasonal Climate Predictions

An ensemble local hydrologic forecast derived from the seasonal forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) is presented. Three-month seasonal forecasts were used to resample historical meteorological conditions and generate ensemble forcing datasets for a TOPMODEL-based hydrology model. Eleven retrospective forecasts were run at Florida and New York sites. Fo...

Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability

It has recently been argued that single-model seasonal forecast ensembles are overdispersive, implying that the real world is more predictable than indicated by estimates of so-called perfect model predictability, particularly over the North Atlantic. However, such estimates are based on relatively short forecast data sets comprising just 20 years of seasonal predictions. Here we study longer 4...

The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability

The importance of initial state and boundary forcing for atmospheric predictability is explored on global to regional spatial scales and on daily to seasonal time scales. A general circulation model is used to conduct predictability experiments with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions. The experiments are verified under perfect model assumptions as well as against observat...

Seasonal hydrological and nutrient loading forecasts for watersheds over the Southeastern United States

19 We show useful seasonal deterministic and probabilistic prediction skill of 20 streamflow and nutrient loading over watersheds in the Southeastern United States 21 (SEUS) for the winter and spring seasons. The study accounts for forecast 22 uncertainties stemming from the meteorological forcing and hydrological model 23 uncertainty. Multi-model estimation from three hydrological models, each...